Photo credit: Daniela Dombrowski

This update on the Green Lake real estate market comes to us via Daniela Dombrowski & Kris Murphy of The Murphy & Dombrowski Real Estate Group.

Number of Homes for Sale, Closed and Pending Sales

This graph shows the number of available homes for sale, the home sales that closed and the pending sales (i.e. offers accepted) in zip code 98103 over the last year. The number of available homes on the market has gone down steadily and dramatically (by 41.6%) and buyer activity has increased by 14.3% year over year showing very strong demand but shrinking supply i.e. fewer choice for buyers.

Inventory

Inventory continues to be very low in zip code 98103. Even in December, generally a slow season for home sales, we only had 1.9 months of inventory which made for a great seller’s market. On the other hand, if you are out looking to buy, you will find that good homes sell very quickly and often in multiple offers, driving prices upward. The market is very competitive for buyers, the likes of which we haven’t seen for the last 4-5 years. Generally, 0-2 months of inventory is characterized as a seller’s market, between 2-5 months of inventory is considered a balanced market, and 5-6 months or more is considered a buyer’s market.

List vs. Sales Prices

Average home prices have increased by 14.8% in zip code 98103 over the last 12 months. The green line on this graph indicates the average list price and the red line shows the average sales price. Starting in July 2011, there is a clear trend with sales prices considerably exceeding list prices. Prices are going up and multiple offers are a common challenge these days, even in the upper price ranges.

Median Price Increase

The median price in zip code 98103 has increased 11.5% over the last 12 months! See for yourself.

Want data or analysis for another zip code, neighborhood or your own home? Feel free to contact us, we are happy to assist.

©Daniela Dombrowski and Kris Murphy for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2012.

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Cate Weisweaver, a loan originator with Salmon Bay Community Lending, and Tyler Mckenzie, Managing Broker at Windermere Real Estate Company, are offering a free seminar for home buyers, Dwell On This, at the Green Lake Library (7364 E Green Lake Dr N) this Saturday (Dec. 10, 2011), 11:15 a.m. – 1 p.m.

Cate and Tyler promise a no-sales learning environment that will provide information that helps take the intimidation out of the process of home ownership.

Space is limited. You can reserve your seat by contacting Cate at (206) 963-5526 or cate [at] salmonbaylending.com.

©Amy Duncan for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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Zillow reports a clear upward price trend between January and July 2011 in areas of classified as “Green Lake,” “Wallingford” and “Phinney Ridge” in the NWMLS:

• 4.3% appreciation in Green Lake (“Green Lake” as defined in the NWMLS includes properties all the way up to N 100th St.)
• 4.9% appreciation in Wallingford (including Tangletown)
• 5.4% appreciation in Phinney Ridge

Other neighborhoods that posted gains include Ballard, Queen Anne, First Hill, Hawthorne Hills, Madison Park, Magnolia, Mt Baker, Montlake, Olympic Manor, Ravenna, View Ridge and Whittier Heights.

For Seattle overall, Zillow reports a 3.8% decline and 5.1% lower prices nationwide year over year in July 2011.

Specifically, within the MyGreenLake boundaries, here is what we have been seeing over the last six months:

Sales in the MyGreenLake area, April to October 2011 - click to enlarge

Currently, there are 50 homes on the market, 27 are under contract and 93 have sold. 19 out of the 93 sales, or one fifth of these properties, sold for over asking price. The highest bid up property sold for 16% over list price with a sales price of $580,000 and a list price of $500,000. 14 properties sold at list price and on average the sales to list price ratio is at 98.69%. Average market time is at 58 days. Inventory levels (current active listings divided by pending sales) are very low at 1.85 months.

The high number of multiple offers, sales prices coming in almost at list price and the low inventory levels are all indicators of a healthy seller’s market in the MyGreenLake area.

In our own experience in representing sellers in the neighborhood over the last few months, most of our listings received multiple offers, in one case driving the price $40,000 above asking. For the most part in representing buyers, our clients had to compete in multiple offer situations as well. The longest market time for our listings was 12 days, most of them receiving offers within the first week of being on the market.

According to U.S. Cities Where Homes Sell the Fastest, a Zillow analysis posted on CNBC.com, Seattle is tied for second place, after San Francisco. And, Puget Sound Business Journal recently reported that we had the fifth biggest gain in jobs in the past year.

In summary, the Green Lake neighborhood is experiencing extremely low inventory in homes for sale, causing buyers to have to compete for properties which is driving up prices. A healthy job market and historically low interest rates add to this, making it a very healthy seller’s market within our neighborhood at this time.

©Daniela Dombrowski and Kris Murphy for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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Green Lake’s Dry Cleaning Station (7404 Aurora Ave N) has closed.

Yesterday (Thursday, Sept. 29, 2011), customers’ items that had been left at Dry Cleaning Station were moved to Dry Cleaning Solutions, in Burien (15712 1st Ave S).

Dry Cleaning Solutions is open Monday-Friday, 9 a.m. – 7 p.m. and Saturday, 9 a.m. – 4 p.m. The shop can be reached at (206) 243-9400.

According to Dry Cleaning Station customer Chris Cerman, no advance notice was given to customers that their belongings were being moved more than 16 miles south of where they were originally dropped off for cleaning.

All dry cleaning has been removed the Aurora location.

Shallina Lakhani, owner of Regency Cleaners, had been operating Dry Cleaning Station for the last couple of years, according to property owner Virginia Roberts.

The Green Lake dry cleaner had very poor yelp reviews. “They destroyed (shrunk by over 40% and it now has a fowl odor) my silk comforter and the owner is refusing to address the issue,” yelp reviewer Susie H. wrote in June.

“The woman at the counter was sympathetic and told me that my missing pants were probably sitting on a shelf at the plant, and the workers were just too lazy to clean them,” reviewer Christy A. wrote last October. “She said she didn’t know how they stayed in business.”

According to Roberts, Lakhani was two months behind on rent. “I kicked her out at noon today,” Roberts says.

The 1089 sq. ft. property, which shares a parking lot with PCC, is located between St. Andrews Bar and Grill and Wireless Toyz. It is currently for lease and is available immediately through McKee Properties. The space, which was extensively renovated in 2004, includes a wheelchair-accessible bathroom.

The property has been in Roberts’ family for many years. Her grandfather, Homer MacDonald, a prominent Seattle banker at the turn of the last century, originally owned the building.

Roberts says that the building, which at one time housed the Lion’s Lair Tavern, used to be a center for crime. However, she says, things have turned around since St. Andrews Bar and Grill opened in 2006. According to Roberts, the bar is a popular destination for several police officers that are friends with the owners.

For more information about the space for lease, contact McKee Properties at (650) 269-8611.

©Amy Duncan for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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Cate Weisweaver, a loan originator with Salmon Bay Community Lending, is offering a free seminar for home buyers, “Dwell On This,” at the Green Lake Library (7364 E Green Lake Dr N) this Saturday (August 13, 2011), 11:15 a.m. – 1 p.m.

Cate promises a no-sales learning environment and says that she will provide information that helps take the intimidation out of the process of home ownership.

Space is limited. You can reserve your seat by contacting Cate at (206) 963-5526 or cate [at] salmonbaylending.com.

©Amy Duncan for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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Regular Green Lake walker and local personality Leonardo, often fondly referred to as “Spanish Lessons Guy,” is looking for a place to live.

Do you have a lead on a room for rent? Please call Leonardo at (206) 683-0678.

©Amy Duncan for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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Redfin’s Daniel Petkevich sent us this heat map, which displays how active the local real estate market is by zip code. “You can look at the map to get a general feel for how a neighborhood is doing and click on a zip code to get specific numbers for it,” Daniel says. “I think it’s a great way to people to quickly understand their local housing markets. It’s colorful, interactive, and instantly understandable.”

Daniels explains that an “even” market with six months of inventory and 5% annual price growth is displayed as being 75 degrees. Changes in either of those two numbers bring the temperature up or down.

The heat map is below. You can use the navigation tools to zoom in to Green Lake or zoom out to see the whole region:

Curious about how much Green Lake homes are being listed for? According to Redfin’s Seattle Market Report for June 2011 (.xls), there were 18 Green Lake homes on the market last month and they had a median list price of $662,000.

Thanks, Daniel!

©Amy Duncan for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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Cate Weisweaver

Cate Weisweaver, a loan originator with Salmon Bay Community Lending, is offering a free seminar for home buyers at the Green Lake Library (7364 E Green Lake Dr N) this Saturday (July 9, 2011), 11:15 a.m. – 1 p.m.

Cate promises a no-sales learning environment and says that she will provide information that helps take the intimidation out of the process of home ownership.

Space is limited. You can reserve your seat by contacting Cate at (206) 963-5526 or cate [at] salmonbaylending.com.

©Amy Duncan for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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Thank you notes from last year's volunteer effort at Daniel Bagley. Photo credit: Erica Browne Grivas

This Friday (June 15, 2011), the staff of the Green Lake Windermere office will take the day off and participate in a day of community service.

Participants will be lending a hand with the development of Daniel Bagley Elementary‘s outdoor classroom and learning garden (7821 Stone Ave N). The project, which is a continuation of the work done by Windermere last year, includes the construction of a shed and benches.

“Windermere’s Community Service Day started in 1984 with my dad, John Jacobi, a handful of agents, and a run-down chain-link fence at an elementary school that needed some TLC,” said company president, OB Jacobi, in a press release. “Twenty-seven years and more than 800,000 hours of community service later, we’ve continued this tradition through neighborhood-enhancing projects in the areas where our Windermere teams live, work, and play.”

Thanks for the tip, Katie!

©Amy Duncan for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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Post tags: gardening, kids, local businesses, real estate, schools, volunteer

In zip codes 98103, 98105 and 98115 inventory for single family homes has dropped to some of the lowest levels we have seen over the last four years. There are fewer homes on the market than last spring when the tax credit was in effect but they are selling at the same rate. Buyer demand is starting to outpace available homes on the market. This makes for very favorable selling conditions in those areas.

Months of inventory based on pended sales in zip codes 98103, 98105 and 98115:

For sale, sold, and pended, January 2010 - March 2011

Inventory levels, March 2007 - March 2011

In analyzing the sales trends specifically within the neighborhood boundaries defined by My Green Lake, we see that since the beginning of the year 36 sales have closed, 29 properties are under contract and 33 homes are active on the market, as of April 19, 2011.

Click to enlarge

You can see a list of active, pending, and sold properties in Green Lake since Jan. 1, 2011 by clicking the graphic to the left.

What does this mean?

One measure we apply in assessing the condition of the housing market is to look at the number of homes on the market and then divide that number by the number of pending or sold homes. When applying this formula, we get to 1.13 months of inventory based on pended (under contract) sales and to .91 months of inventory based on closed sales. We have not seen low numbers like this since the height of the market in 2007. Two months or less of inventory is defined as a seller’s market. Between 2-5 months is seen as a balanced market, and once we get to over 5-6 months of inventory as we experienced the majority of time over the last few years (with the exception of the tax credit periods) it is a buyer’s market.

Due to the low number of available homes on the market and strong buyer demand at the moment, multiple offers are back and in some cases prices are driven up. Out of the 36 closed sales, seven received and accepted an offer within less than a week; four out of these or 11% of total sales went for over asking price (1%, 2%, 15% and 17% above asking price respectively).

When looking at the properties that are currently pending, 12 out of 29 or 41% sold in less than a week. Official sales prices for these homes are not available, yet. However, from our own experience in representing sellers and buyers over the last few weeks, we can report that many of these resulted in multiple offers and in some cases sales prices will exceed the list price – significantly so in some cases.

An April 6, 2011 Northwest Multiple Listing Service press release confirms this apparent trend in some other areas as well. The press release quotes Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. “Most real estate professionals will be happy to move past the year-over-year comparisons that have been made the first few months of 2011,” he says, “as they reflect the boost given home sales by last year’s Homebuyer Tax Credit. Home sales are now standing on their own — without the benefit of incentives — and the market is actually behaving quite typically.”

“In fact,” Grady added, “some urban core neighborhoods, such as Greenlake, Queen Anne and West Bellevue, are seeing very strong demand, and a waning supply of desirable homes for sale.” Many buyers looking in these neighborhoods are beginning to express frustration over the lack of available homes, according to Grady.  “As a result, Realtors are beginning to report multiple offers, with contracts settling over the list price on the best homes.”

While this certainly isn’t the norm in most areas served by the NWMLS, Grady said it is encouraging that in some areas homes are selling briskly, and distressed and bank-owned properties are still in the minority.

In the Northwest MLS map areas comprising the Eastside, prices were off about 2 percent ($435,000 versus 444,000), while in the Seattle area, the year-over-year drop was only about 1 percent ($357,500 versus $361,500).

“We saw a lot of qualified buyers making offers in March,” Northwest MLS director OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company, is quoted as saying. “They’re out of the tire-kicking mode and ready to buy now. Inventory is low in general, and there is a particular shortage of move-in ready homes,” he stated, noting properties that are selling look like model homes. “Sellers realize if they remove any buyer objections ahead of time, their house will sell, and sell quickly.”

Grady senses some neighborhoods appear to be close to recovery, according to the press release, which cites remarks made to Grady by a broker who likened the market to a space capsule re-entering the atmosphere: “While it might appear to be burning out of control, the heat is actually beneficial, providing the friction necessary to slow the descent and allow a safe landing. Perhaps our broader market appears to be smoldering now, but some neighborhoods also appear to be close to recovery. With ‘Spaceship Seattle’ currently offering fewer than two single family homes for sale for every buyer currently under contract, it could be an interesting summer around the real estate launch pad.”

National news reports are more optimistic about the housing as well. An April 18, 2011 MSN Money article cites a recent Freddie Mac report that “paints a hopeful picture of the housing market just in time for the spring selling season,” and a MainStreet post from April 14, 2011 cites a study that shows that prices for “non-distressed” properties may be stabilizing.

©Daniela Dombrowski and Kris Murphy for My Green Lake | Seattle's Green Lake Blog, 2011.

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